One of my favorite thought exercises when reading and teaching history, is the ‘what if’. What if events had gone differently than they actually did? Many people think that history was a series of inevitable events that brought us to the present day. But that simply is not the case. One minor aspect of an event or battle could have gone differently and changed the course of history. The Americans winning the American Revolution or the Union winning the Civil War were not foregone conclusions at the start of the conflicts.

What if the Confederacy had won the Civil War? They definitely had an opportunity to do so, even though the Union was by far the favorite to win at the start of the conflict. The North had four times as many free citizens, produced 90% of the nation’s manufactured goods, had 70% of the nation’s railroads, and a greater food supply. If this war happened today, Vegas would be betting on the North at the start of the conflict. However, the South had some advantages too. They considered this a fight for their independence, a fight to defend their homeland, and a fight to defend and hold onto the institution of slavery. They had greater motivation to fight. Many of the best generals in the country were from the South.

There were two major moments in the war in which the Confederacy had an opportunity to strike a blow to the Union. The first instance came in the late summer of 1862. When command of the Confederate army fell to Robert E. Lee, he was able to win a string of impressive victories in the Seven Days Battles, and the Second Battle of Bull Run. Lee was confident enough to attempt to invade Northern soil. His goal was to win a major victory in the North, and turn Northerners against the war. He reasoned that if Northerners voted Peace Democrats into Congress, they would push to end the war, and the Confederacy would be independent.

The major battle that Lee hoped to win was the Battle of Antietam in Maryland. Though nearly a stalemate in number of casualties, the Confederacy was forced to retreat. Antietam was the deadliest one-day battle in American history with total casualties at 22,720.

The Confederacy’s second opportunity to strike a blow to the Union was the following summer of 1863. Once again Lee and the Confederates won a series of remarkable victories including at the Battle of Chancellorsville in May 1863. Despite this victory, the Confederates lost one of their best generals in Stonewall Jackson. Had Jackson been a part of the Battle of Gettysburg two months later, the course of the battle may have turned out differently. After Chancellorsville, Lee was feeling invincible and decided to invade the North once again. The ramifications of such a Confederate victory could not be understated. His goal once again was to make Northerners so sick of the war that they would turn against the war effort and push for peace. Lee decided to invade Pennsylvania. But like Antietam, the Battle of Gettysburg was a Union victory because the Confederates were forced to retreat from the battlefield. While both sides had staggering losses, the Confederacy was not able to replace their losses. Gettysburg was the deadliest battle of the war. The Union had 23,049 casualties, and the Confederacy had 28,063 casualties. The twin victories at both Gettyburg and Vicksburg, Mississippi, are considered a turning point in the war. Even though the war continued for almost two more years, the Confederacy could not fully recover and did not again attempt to invade the North.

But what if the Confederacy had won a decisive victory at Antietam or Gettysburg? While the Union had a larger army in both battles, it is quite possible that the Confederacy could have won either of these battles, especially with the confidence of Lee and his army. Lee had defeated larger Union armies time and time again. If the Confederates had won either battle, they could have continued marching North, possibly winning other battles on Northern soil. And like Lee had hoped, it is reasonable to believe that Northerners could have turned against the war. They might have considered it not worth it to keep fighting to keep the Southern states in the Union. While they probably would have been bitter about a loss, they may have decided that it would be better to let the Southern states become their own independent country.

Had the confederacy won the war, would other foreign countries have recongized the Confederate States of America as an independent and soverign nation? While some countries would, I think the major countries around the world would not have, at least at first. Countries like Great Britain and France had strongly opposed the institution of slavery by 1861. The Confederacy was hoping to gain recognition from these countries throughout the war, but they refused. I think they would have stuck to their instincts and not recognized a nation that was still relying on slave labor. I also think the United States would have intimidated these countries not to recognize the Confederacy. A major question though, is how long would they not recognize the Confederacy? Would they have continued to not recognize the Confederacy for years or decades? It seems possible that these countries would have had internal debates. Do they recongnize a country that maintains slavery even if the Confederacy itself is friendly and is willing to trade? I think major countries would continue to not recognize the Confederacy as a separate, soverign nation because they didn’t want to be allied with a country that practices slavery.

Would the United States and the Confederacy have gotten along? Simply, I don’t think so. There probably would be some debate in the U.S. government about how to approach and deal with the Confederate States of America. I suppose there would be some who would see the benefits of friendly trade relations with our neighbor to the South. However, I think the relationship between the U.S. and the C.S.A. would be tense in the long-term. I think most members of the U.S. government would not want to recognize the C.S.A. as an independent, soverign nation for the same reasons as other foreign nations, not wanting to be associated with the institution of slavery. They would feel animosity towards the country that fired the first shots of the Civil War. Because of these tensions, there’s a strong possibility that there would have been border conflicts out west as the two countries continued to expand. I think at some point there would be another armed conflict between the two countries. I’m not sure when that would happen but my guess would be by the end of the 19th century. If armed conflict did break out, the United States would have to decide if it was worth the effort to try to win back the South. This would depend on the size and might of the two opposing countries at that time. If the United States had progressed at a faster rate than the Confederacy (which is quite feasible) they may have taken the opportunity to try win back their former land. This conflict however would be close in size and scale to the first Civil War, which would have everyone second guessing.

When would slavery have ended? This is probably the most intruging question of them all. If the Confederate States of America remained an independent nation up until the present, when would they have outlawed slavery and what would have been their process? Throughout the nineteenth century, the agitations between pro-slavery Southerners and Northern abolitionists only continued to grow. Pro-slavery southerners began digging in and presenting a growing number of justifications for slavery. Had they won the Civil War, I believe that they would have latched onto these arguments and would have been emboldened by the victory. They may have argued that Divine Providence had been on the side of slavery. Therefore, I think it would have taken decades before they outlawed slavery. I think what would eventually do them in would be the global outcry against the Confederacy and their institutions. There would be an alliance of countries that would refuse to trade with them until they abolished slavery, and the sanctions against them would pile up. At that point the Confederacy’s economy would do so poorly that they would have no other choice than to give into the pressures of the global community. Even if they decided to outlaw slavery, I think they would go about it in a very long, drawn out process of gradual emancipation. This would mean that current slaves would remain slaves, but their children would be freed (Or some other kind of similar method). Southern slave holders would demand payment for their emancipated slaves. The process would take a generation or longer before slavery was fully outlawed. So while I don’t believe slavery would have lasted forever in the Confederacy, the question is how long would it have lasted. I think it would have taken until close to 1900 for them to take any action, and then perhaps another couple decades for slavery to be conpleted eradicated.

The last question I want to pose is: What would happen to the Northern states after the Civil War if the Confederacy had won? Would there be other states that attempted to secede if they disagreed with the federal government? While I don’t think this would happen, it is worth pondering. Whether or not states had a right to secede was a common debate in the 1800s, starting with founders like Jefferson and Madison. If Northern states witnessed the success of the Confederacy and their quest to leave the union, it is in the realm of possibility that other states would attempt to do the same. Luckily with the Northern victory, the debate on state secession was squashed, and we have not fractured into many small warring countries.

What do you think? What would have happened if the Confederacy had won the Civil War? Please comment on any of the thoughts above. I’m interested to hear other perspectives.

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